Prof. Dr. Tobias Rötheli

tobias.roetheli@uni-erfurt.de

Holder of the Professorship for Macroeconomics, in particular Monetary and Currency Theory (Makroökonomie, insb. Geld- und Währungstheorie) (Faculty of Economics, Law and Social Sciences)

Contact

Lehrgebäude 1 / room 0107

+49 361 737-4531

+49 361 737-4539

tobias.roetheli@uni-erfurt.de

Office hours

On appointment by email via Sekretariat secretariat (susann.storz@uni-erfurt.de)

Visiting address

Campus
Nordhäuser Str. 63
99089 Erfurt

Mailing address

University of Erfurt
Faculty of Economics, Law and Social Sciences
Makroökonomie
Postfach 90 02 21
99105 Erfurt

Curriculum Vitae

Biography

Degrees, Appointments

1982 Lic.rer.pol., University of Bern

1986 Dr.rer.pol., University of Bern

1994 Venia Docendi, University of Bern

Current and previous positions

1982 - 1985 Assistant, Economics Department University of Bern (Prof. J. Niehans)

1986 - 1987 Economist, Research Department Swiss National Bank

1987 - 1988 Visiting Scholar, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1988 - 1990 Economist and Editor, Research Department Swiss National Bank

1990 - 1992 Visiting Scholar, Harvard University

1992 - 1993 Visiting Scholar, Stanford University

1994 - 2000 Lecturer, University of Bern

2000 - Professor of Macroeconomics, University of Erfurt

Membership in Professional Associations

American Economic Association (AEA)

Society for the Advancement of Behavioral Economics (SABE)

Publications

Selected articles and papers

Selected Articles

2021: A Theory of Relativity of Cultures, Incomes and Happiness, Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, 33/1, 54-73 (full text).

2021: Behavioural economics and the Phillips curve: new evidence from sectoral survey data, International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, 14/2, 131-141 (abstract).

2019: Heuristics versus econometrics as a basis for forecasting international inflation differentials. Foresight, 21/2, 216-226.

2018: Should business rely on business cycle forecasting?, Central European Journal of Operations Research, 26, 121-133, (full text).

2017: To consume or to save: are we maximizing or what? In “Handbook of Behavioural Economics and Smart Decision-Making” edited by Morris Altman, Chapter 22, 392–410 (full text).

2017: Generalization of information, Granger causality and forecasting, Foresight, 604-614 (full text).

2013: Innovations in Banking Practices and the Credit Boom of the 1920s, Business History Review 87 (Summer issue): 309–327 (full text).

2012: Boundedly Rational Banks’ Contribution to the Credit Cycle. Journal of Socio-Economics, 41/5, 730-737 (full text).

2012: Oligopolistic Banks, Bounded Rationality, and the Credit Cycle. Economics Research International, Volume 2012, Article ID 961316 (full text)

2012: Output Growth and Output Variability: Quantifying Connections and Tradeoffs. Review of Economics, 63/1, 1-17 (full text)

2011: Pattern-Based Expectations: International Experimental Evidence and Applications in Financial Economics. Review of Economics and Statistics, 93/4, 1319-1330 (full text).

2011: The Superiority of Monetary over Barter Exchange: Experimental Results and Policy Implications. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 58/4, 437-454 (abstract).

2011: The Kuznets Curve: Determinants of its Shape and the Role of Finance. Studies in Economics and Finance, 28/2, 149-159 (full text).

2010: Causes of the Financial Crisis: Risk Misperception, Policy Mistakes, and Banks' Bounded Rationality. Journal of Socio-Economics, 39/2, 119-126 (full text).

2010: The Financial Crisis: Economic and Psychological Perspectives. With David Leiser, Journal of Socio-Economics, 39/2, 117-118.

2008: Estimation of Evolutionary Models as a Tool for Research in Industrial Organization. Journal of Socio-Economics, 37, 138-148 (abstract).

2007: Business Forecasting and the Development of Business Cycle Theory. History of Political Economy, 39/3 (full text).

2006: Elements of Behavioral Monetary Economics. In “Handbook of Contemporary Behavioral Economics: Foundations and Developments” edited by Morris Altman, M. E. Sharpe Publishers (full text).

2005: The Illusion of Over-Optimism in Survey Data: The Case of Manufacturers' Selling Prices. Journal of Socio-Economics, 34, 151-159 (abstract).

2005: Applied Welfare Economics with Bounded Rationality: Public Policies toward Remote Sensing. International Advances in Economic Research, 11/1, 39-47 (full text).

2004: Banks' Default Forecasts: Do They Smooth or Amplify Industry Lending Cycles? RISEC, International Review of Economics and Business, 51/4 (full text).

2004: Bandwagon Effects and Run Patterns in Exchange Rates once More. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 14, 99-104 (abstract).

2002: Bandwagon Effects and Run Patterns in Exchange Rates. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money 12, 157 - 166 (full text).

2001: Acquisition of Costly Information: An Experimental Study. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 46/2 (full text).

2001: Competition, Herd Behavior, and Credit Cycles: Evidence from Major Swiss Banks. Journal of Economics and Business, 53/6 (full text).

1999: Selling Price and Profits: what Survey Data tell about Firms Rationality. Managerial and Decision Economics, 20/6 (full text).

1999: Producers' Expectations: Their Role in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism. Kyklos, 53/1 (full text).

1999: Assessing Monetary Targeting with Models of Expectations Formation. Journal of Policy Modeling, 21/1 (full text).

1998: Bank Credit and Equipment Investment in Switzerland. RISEC, International Review of Economics and Business, 45/4.

1998: Pattern Recognition and Procedurally Rational Expectations. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 37/1 (full text).

1998: Forecasting Among Alternative Strategies in the Management of Uncertainty. Managerial and Decision Economics, 19/3 (full text).

1997: Schätzt die schweizerische Industrie die Entwicklung ihrer Exportpreise richtig ein? Aussenwirtschaft, 52/4.

1996: Price and Output Effects of Heterogeneous Expectations. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 132/2 (full text).

1995: International Investment and Exchange Rate Risk: An Experimental Analysis. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 216/3 (full text).

1995: Expectations about Change in Market Structure and Natural Resource Extraction. Journal of Economics, 62/2 (full text).

1993: Exogenes und Endogenes Wachstum: Ein Streifzug. Jahrbuch für Sozialwissenschaft, 44/1 (full text).

1991: Money and the Tobin q: Investment Dynamics in the Small Open Economy. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik, 208/2 (full text).

1990: A Money Market and Credit Market Model of the Determination of the Interest Rate and the Price Level. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 126/4 (full text).

1990: Money Supply and Money Demand Determinants of Swiss Inflation. Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, 126/1.

1988: Ziele und Grundlagen der schweizerischen Geldpolitik. In O. Clauser, P. Mooslechner und G. Pegoretti, Hrsg., Finanz-, Industrie und Währung in Italien und im deutschsprachigen Raum, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin (full text).

1988: Money Demand and Inflation in Switzerland: An Application of the Pascal-Lag Technique. Review of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 70/3 (full text).

Books

2007: Expectations, Rationality and Economic Performance: Models and Experiments, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham (abstract, Link zu EDWARD ELGAR Publishing).

1995: Monetary Regimes, Risk, and International Capital Accumulation. Berner Beiträge zur Nationalökonomie, 71. Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern und Stuttgart (abstract, full text).

Eine Buchbesprechung durch K. Knot (Seiten 363-365, De Economist, 146, No. 2, 1998)

Eine Buchbesprechung durch J. Weidmann (Seiten 338-340, Journal of Economics, 63, No. 3, 1996).

1986: Das Volkseinkommen und die internationalen Kapitalbewegungen. Berner Beiträge zur Nationalökonomie, 50. Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern und Stuttgart (full text).

Working Papers

2014 Pattern-Based Inflation Expectations

2014 Pattern-Based Inflation Expectations and the U.S. Real Rate of Interest

2014 Inflationary or Deflationary Consequences of an Exchange Rate Floor

To top

2015: Zurück zu flexiblen Wechselkursen

2014: Effekte der Wechselkursuntergrenze

2014: Erwartungen radikal hinterfragen (Seiten 28-29)

2014: Wechselkursuntergrenze: Folgt Inflation oder Deflation?

2009: Zielkonflikt zwischen Einkommen und Stabilität

2009: Aus der Finanzmarktkrise lernen

2008: Banken, Risiken und die Transparenz

2008: Wenn Bankenmanager um Karriere und Profit wetteifern

2003: Warum die Schweiz eine Zinsinsel ist: Ein Rätsel, das keines ist

2000: Risiko in der Wirtschaft

2000: Im Brennpunkt: Chancen und Risiken der Aktienanlage: Neues aus der Wissenschaft

2000: Wie die Geldpolitik auf die Konjuktur wirkt: Die Schlüsselrolle der Unternehmer

1999: Sparen und Anlegen aus volkswirtschaftlicher Sicht

1998: Für eine langfristig orientierte Geldpolitik

1997: Sind Unternehmer wie Schlittschuhläufer?

Books

2020: The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations: Macroeconomics Meets Psychology, Cambridge, United Kingdom : Cambridge University Press (weitere Informationen).

2007: Expectations, Rationality and Economic Performance: Models and Experiments, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.

1995: Monetary Regimes, Risk, and International Capital Accumulation. Berner Beiträge zur Nationalökonomie, 71. Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern und Stuttgart (abstract, full text).

Eine Buchbesprechung durch K. Knot (Seiten 363-365, De Economist, 146, No. 2, 1998)

Eine Buchbesprechung durch J. Weidmann (Seiten 338-340, Journal of Economics, 63, No. 3, 1996).

1986: Das Volkseinkommen und die internationalen Kapitalbewegungen. Berner Beiträge zur Nationalökonomie, 50. Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern und Stuttgart (full text).